Projections of pools in Unity state

Atok Dan Baguoot

If these elections are to be free and fair, the outcomes would be marvelous, interesting and surprising because neither me nor you won’t like it and that is all about true democracy of the really democrats like what my senior college Nhial Bol called as democracy of non democrats. Nhial was actually right because the way SPLM nominated its flag bearers to contest in various positions indeed contradicted wishes of the marginalised that it had been advocating to grant justice, freedom and decent services.

It is an unfortunate situation in South Sudan that spade is normally called big spoon and spoon as tooth pick but if reality was to be there, they would have retain the original versions rather than that total iron. It is actually a simple task to fight for a just principle but hard to live to it. SPLM, like any other liberation movement on the continent had to experience interval power wrangling and contradicts itself in executing its principles. It was never a rare an unfortunate incident for SPLM but a normal phase encounters by any movement to get to its maturity in politics but it would be up to political party to handle its affairs without fear and favour among the cadres.

Nomination of candidates by the political party usually portray how united and mature is that very entity in handling its matters without favour and fear so long the party is guided by common ideology and believe. SPLM betrayed some of its powerful prominent leaders in the process of filing the candidates. In that concerted event, some leaders have seen themselves as being underestimated while other either got it as overestimated hence, internal rifts got conducive breeding ground.

This actually signifies by rampant independence of most of the former party strong diehard without blessing from the mother party which nursed them throughout their political life.

I would like to take us to unity state where the rift was at its peak since its grass root primaries in 2008 when the former chairman and incumbent governor Taban Deng Gai lost the chairmanship of the party to his comrade Dr. Joseph N. Monytuil Wejang, the current GoSS minister for Health in a disputed manner. In that election, division within the SPLM ranks was born in oil rich state and up to now the two gentlemen had never sat together as people bounds by the common ideology to shape the future of the party in that state.

These two gentlemen are from same Nuer tribe, well educated and patriotic and also from the same division according to internal geographical and political division that unity state used to be divided in sharing power. The two gentlemen polarized the state population in their own neo-ideologies contrary to common SPLM existing ideology of which the diehard of the party are supposed to adhere to. Public servants were assign job in the same favour. In fact, they became bipolar (two centres of parallel powers that never met) and SPLM became laughing stock.

Population from the two Dinka Counties was Tabanised and Monytuilised to the extent that daily bread for living is earned based on the two great ideologies. Now that Joseph Monytuil is no long in the competition in the post of governor according to the decision made by the party highest organ, political bureau and another strong woman has emerged as an independent candidate and given the fact that affirmative action is also posing its way into our political way of life, couple with grieve dislike of Taban Deng in the state. In reality, predictions of such a volatile even is always hard but with help of scientific opinion research, one can predict to the nearest. NCP has also filed a former governor, Paul Lily as their challenger. Masses in unity state are eager of change to the extent that they will violate the principle of better the devil you know than the angel you will know.

Nomination of Mr. Taban Deng as the SPLM flag bearer in the post of governorship is really a blow in the face to none other than but SPLM itself because it is contrary to what southern Sudanese masses fought for in two years to decide on the kind of governance and who to govern them. In the eye of true democrats, masses would have been allowed to choose who to represent them in a manner that respects both the party and masses. Imposition of leaders on people is what Late Dr. John Garang used to describe as regime of few cliques in Khartoum deciding on the political future of the Sudanese in their favour.

If this election is to be free and fair, and with mentality of change couple to Southern Ideology of leaning towards SPLM and if one is to be brutal frank, Angeline J Teny will win without doubt. Why? The population is tired, bored of Taban even when you just happen to say in Arabic (ana taban) am tired, people misquote it of Governor Taban. In fact, the NCP candidate will never win because Southerners are fatigued of North and whoever supported by North is definitely seen as betraying their cause.

Besides, that gender is an issue that needs special heed in today’s politics. In the current government of GoSS, there is only one woman out of nine men as governors thus, the three current women governor’s candidates are likely to win especially the Warrap and Unity state though Western Equatoria is somewhat still skeptical but based on her previous performances, she is to convince voters. They all come from three states found west of the River Nile in the South. One would have come from East of the Nile to at least equate well.

Back to prediction of the same pools in the election of other candidates to various parliamentary seats, state SPLM office failed to institute their electoral college hence, the whole thing was decided by the political bureau. Power sharing logic was applied to represent the two blocs between the Tabanised and Monytuilised affiliates and loyalists. Whatever did by the political bureau reflect the same ideology instead of personal contributions to the party. Equal numbers were nominated in all the counties representing bipolar as a mechanism of solving that deep rooted difference in the state.

Campaign will also follow the same chain so predicting the outcome of the election would only be determined by whose loyalists have the popularity but not party. Group affiliated to current governor would be accused of intimidating the rest while those others will cry loud of being denied access to polling centres. If SPLM was ready to have peace in that state, it would have nominated different candidate apart from the two as a smart way of defusing crisis but nomination of Taban was plainly seen as promotion of external hegemony over the state because there is no way somebody outside can recommend me as the best yet my kids and wife in the house differ in that recommendation and you insist that my family members don’t know me.

Atok Dan is a journalist working with Southern Sudan Radio & TV and can be reached at atokfuture@gmail.com